02 / The promise test

A promise deserves an outcome.

What did the candidate commit to? What actually happened? Compare the original pledge, the completion criterion and the official evidence.

A small selected sample, not an administration’s total fulfillment rate.

These seven commitments were selected because the linked official records identify both a pledge and a relevant outcome. The sample is neither exhaustive nor representative. Percentages across these unequal samples cannot establish which president kept the most promises.

42.9%Completed in this selected sample
3 completed ÷ 7 assessed · 0 unverified
CompletedPartial / limitedNot fulfilled as definedNot verified
Trump IIPartial / limited

No tax on tips

Status at April 2026

Completion criterion

Remove tax on tips as pledged; distinguish the broad slogan from a limited deduction.

What happened

The enacted law provides a deduction for qualified tips, capped at $25,000 for 2025–2028. This is qualified, temporary relief, not an unlimited permanent removal of every tax on tips.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official record2025 tax law: White House announcement (opens in a new tab)July 4, 2025
Outcome evidenceFY2027 Budget: Governmental Receipts (opens in a new tab)April 2026 · Pages 74–75: temporary deductions and their limits.
Trump IIPartial / limited

No tax on overtime

Status at April 2026

Completion criterion

Remove tax on overtime as pledged; identify the scope and duration of enacted relief.

What happened

The law provides a deduction for qualified overtime premium pay through 2028, capped at $12,500, or $25,000 on a joint return. The broader slogan is only partly met.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official record2025 tax law: White House announcement (opens in a new tab)July 4, 2025
Outcome evidenceFY2027 Budget: Governmental Receipts (opens in a new tab)April 2026 · Pages 74–75: temporary deductions and their limits.
BidenNot fulfilled as defined

Cancel $10,000 of student debt for low- and middle-income borrowers

Status at January 15, 2025

Completion criterion

Deliver the broad $10,000 cancellation program, rather than announce it or count unrelated targeted relief.

What happened

The Supreme Court blocked the broad program. Separate targeted relief reached millions of borrowers, but did not implement this program as designed.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official recordBiden student-loan pledge and proposed relief (opens in a new tab)August 24, 2022
Trump ICompleted

Place Neil Gorsuch on the Supreme Court

Status at December 22, 2017

Completion criterion

Nomination followed by confirmation and appointment, not nomination alone.

What happened

The year-one White House account identifies Gorsuch’s placement on the Court as a fulfilled campaign commitment.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official recordTrump year-one campaign commitments (opens in a new tab)December 22, 2017
Trump ICompleted

Recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital

Status at December 22, 2017

Completion criterion

Official U.S. recognition. Moving the embassy is a separate action.

What happened

The White House records official recognition and explicitly links it to the campaign commitment.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official recordTrump year-one campaign commitments (opens in a new tab)December 22, 2017
ObamaCompleted

Repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell

Status at September 20, 2011

Completion criterion

Legal repeal must take effect, not merely be signed.

What happened

The repeal law was signed in December 2010 and formally took effect on September 20, 2011.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official recordSigning the Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell Repeal Act (opens in a new tab)December 22, 2010 · Transcript: Vice President Biden identifies the campaign promise.
Outcome evidenceStatement on formal repeal (opens in a new tab)September 20, 2011
ObamaNot fulfilled as defined

Close the Guantánamo Bay detention facility

Status at January 17, 2017

Completion criterion

Close the detention facility; reducing its population is not closure.

What happened

The White House acknowledged that closure would not be achieved before Obama left office. It reported 45 detainees on January 17, while citing congressional obstacles.

Open the pledge & outcome sources
Campaign pledge identified in official recordWhite House briefing on the closure pledge (opens in a new tab)January 12, 2017

Rate = completed ÷ assessed commitments. Partial and unfulfilled entries remain in the denominator; unverified entries are excluded and counted separately. No partial-credit weights. A historical completion label does not guarantee a policy remains in force today.