Visual guide: Iraq: 2007–2008 security gains, incomplete institutions and persistent costs. U.S. Government Accountability Office and the linked official records supply the evidence below. This diagram is not a photograph, chronology of legal effect or measure of success.
Context & scope
The Iraq war began in 2003. This case reviews the 2007 strategy and 2008 oversight, rather than the whole war. Changes involved U.S. and Iraqi actors and a militia cease-fire; they are not assigned solely to the president.
Goal
The New Way Forward sought to stem violence and create conditions for reconciliation, with a long-term goal of an Iraq able to govern, defend and sustain itself.
U.S. forces rose from about 132,000 in December 2006 to 169,000 in August 2007. GAO summarized reductions in violence as involving added U.S. forces, nongovernmental Iraqi security forces and the Mahdi Army cease-fire.
GAO reported about 70% fewer enemy-initiated attacks between June 2007 and February 2008. Only 9 of 18 provinces had transitioned to Iraqi security control by May 2008, although the strategy targeted all 18 by November 2007. Attack counts do not measure all violence or civilian welfare.
Continuing displacement, deteriorating refugee conditions and U.S. casualties remained part of the record. GAO reported $31 billion disbursed for reconstruction as of April 2008 and $257.5 billion in reported military obligations through September 2006, excluding classified activities and with accounting limits. These different dates and categories cannot be added into an all-in total or called the surge’s cost. Enemy-initiated attack data exclude violence initiated by coalition or Iraqi security forces.