Ronald Reagan · 1981–1989 / The evidence register

The claim.
The record.
The result.

The same standard applied to a completed term. Read the administration’s own account of its record beside the official statistics and public laws that test it.

Browse all 8 claims Open the source register

Dated sources. Visible limits. Independent assessment.

Reading the recordThree separate questions

The claim
Who said it, and what was claimed?
The official record
Check the original source, date and scope.
The outcome
Check measured results and their limits.

01 / Explore by subject

Every claim. Its evidence.

Open the source register

8selected claims
3 subject areas

8 selected claims from President Ronald Reagan's Farewell Address to the Nation (January 11, 1989), as preserved by the Reagan Presidential Library. The administration had no website; this is not an exhaustive inventory of every statement in the address.

Status labels describe the documentary stage, not success scores or proof of presidential causation. Favorable results, unverified parts and evidence limits appear together.

Economy

All subjects

Published statistics#01

19 million new jobs

Administration’s claim

The President said the economic recovery was one of the two things he was proudest of, in which the American people created and filled 19 million new jobs.

What the record establishes

Current BLS payroll estimates show total nonfarm employment rising from 91.0 million in January 1981 to 107.2 million in January 1989 (+16.1 million), after a recession low of 88.8 million in December 1982 (+18.1 million from that low to December 1988). The 19 million figure is not reproduced in this payroll measure; household-survey employment was not checked for this edition.

Official evidence · 2 sources

Official sourceReagan Presidential Library: Farewell Address to the Nation January 11, 1989 · read November 4, 2026 · The President's own account of his record, preserved by the National Archives' Reagan Library.

Official sourceBLS: All employees, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted (CES0000000001) Data extracted November 4, 2026 · Monthly levels in thousands, December 1980 through January 1989, in the current benchmark vintage.

Published statistics#02

Income up, poverty down

Administration’s claim

The President said his economic program brought about the longest peacetime expansion in history, with real family income up and the poverty rate down.

What the record establishes

The claim refers to family income; this site's Census series covers households. Median household income, in 2025 dollars, was $61,690 in 1980, fell to $60,100 in 1983 and rose to $66,740 in 1988. The official poverty rate rose from 13.0% in 1980 to 15.2% in 1983 and was 13.0% in 1988: down from the 1983 peak, but level with 1980. The expansion comparison was not reviewed.

Official evidence · 3 sources

Official sourceCensus Table 2: historical household money income (XLSX) P60-289 · September 2026 edition · All households, all races: median income in 2025 dollars.

Official sourceCensus: Poverty in the United States: 2025 (P60-290) September 15, 2026 · Historical official poverty rates, as published in P60-290.

Published statistics#03

Exports at a record

Administration’s claim

The President said America was exporting more than ever because American industry had become more competitive.

What the record establishes

In nominal dollars, exports of goods and services fell from $294.4 billion in 1981 to $275.2 billion in 1982 and reached $431.2 billion in 1988, the highest in this series to that date. Imports grew faster: the trade deficit widened from $19.4 billion in 1980 to $151.7 billion in 1987 and was $114.6 billion in 1988. Exports were not adjusted for inflation here.

Official evidence · 2 sources

Official sourceBEA and Census: U.S. international trade in goods and services September 3, 2026 edition · Historical Table 1: annual exports, imports and balances, balance-of-payments basis, nominal dollars.

Taxes and budget

All subjects

Law enacted#04

Tax rate cuts

Administration’s claim

The President said that "we cut the people's tax rates, and the people produced more than ever before."

What the record establishes

The Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (Public Law 97–34, approved August 13, 1981) and the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (Public Law 99–514, approved October 22, 1986) enacted the rate changes. The causal link to output, and tax laws in the same years that raised revenue, were not reviewed for this edition.

Official evidence · 3 sources

Official sourceGovInfo: Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (Public Law 97–34), 95 Stat. 172 Approved August 13, 1981 · Statutes at Large, volume 95, page 172.

Official sourceGovInfo: Tax Reform Act of 1986 (Public Law 99–514), 100 Stat. 2085 Approved October 22, 1986 · Statutes at Large, volume 100, page 2085.

Published statistics#05

The deficit: a regret

Administration’s claim

Asked about regrets, the President said: "The deficit is one."

What the record establishes

The President's own assessment matches OMB actuals. The deficit was $79.0 billion in fiscal 1981, peaked at $221.2 billion in fiscal 1986 and was $155.2 billion in fiscal 1988. Debt held by the public rose from $711.9 billion at the end of fiscal 1980 to $2,051.6 billion at the end of fiscal 1988.

Official evidence · 3 sources

Official sourceOMB Table 1.1: receipts, outlays and balances (XLSX) FY2027 Budget · actuals · Unified federal budget balance by fiscal year, millions of nominal dollars; surplus positive, deficit negative.

Official sourceOMB Table 7.1: federal debt at year end (XLSX) FY2027 Budget · actuals · Debt held by the public at the end of each fiscal year, millions of dollars.

Security and diplomacy

All subjects

Agreement / commitment#06

Nuclear stockpiles reduced

Administration’s claim

The President said the superpowers had actually begun to reduce their stockpiles of nuclear weapons.

What the record establishes

The State Department records that the INF Treaty, signed December 8, 1987, entered into force June 1, 1988, and that 2,692 missiles were eliminated, with the last U.S. missiles covered by the treaty eliminated in April–May 1991. The treaty did not last: the U.S. withdrawal took effect August 2, 2019, with the State Department citing Russia's violation.

Official evidence · 3 sources

Official sourceState Department archive: Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) Treaty signed December 8, 1987 · Entered into force June 1, 1988; 2,692 missiles eliminated; last U.S. missiles covered by the treaty eliminated in April–May 1991.

Official sourceState Department archive: U.S. Withdrawal from the INF Treaty on August 2, 2019 Press statement · August 2, 2019 · U.S. withdrawal takes effect, citing Russia's violation of the treaty.

Agreement / commitment#07

Soviets leaving Afghanistan

Administration’s claim

The President said that the Soviets were leaving Afghanistan.

What the record establishes

In April 1988 the President announced that the United States would join the Soviet Union as a guarantor of the Geneva agreements, which provided for the complete withdrawal of Soviet forces. The State Department's Office of the Historian records that Moscow finally withdrew after ten years of insurgency. The exact completion date was not confirmed on a U.S. government host for this edition.

Official evidence · 3 sources

Official sourceReagan Presidential Library: Remarks Announcing the Signing of the Afghanistan Accords April 11, 1988 · The Geneva agreements would provide for the complete withdrawal of Soviet forces; the United States to join the Soviet Union as a guarantor.

Official sourceOffice of the Historian, State Department: The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan and the U.S. Response Read November 4, 2026 · Records that it took ten years of insurgency before Moscow finally withdrew.

Agreement / commitment#08

Cuban troops leaving Angola

Administration’s claim

The President said an American-mediated accord would soon send 50,000 Cuban troops home from Angola.

What the record establishes

On December 22, 1988, the President announced that South Africa, Angola and Cuba had signed U.S.-mediated accords providing for the staged and complete withdrawal of Cuban forces from Angola, to be completed in 1991, and for Namibian independence. The 50,000 figure and the completion of the withdrawal were not confirmed on a U.S. government host for this edition.

Official evidence · 2 sources

Official sourceReagan Presidential Library: Statement on the Southwestern Africa Peace Settlement December 22, 1988 · Accords signed by South Africa, Angola and Cuba, mediated by the United States, for the staged and complete withdrawal of Cuban forces from Angola, to be completed in 1991.

02 / Coverage & sources

The publications behind this edition.

The President’s Farewell Address to the Nation, January 11, 1989, defines which claims are included. Statistical agencies, public-law records and agency statements test the claims. Parts of a claim that could not be checked against an official source are marked as not verified rather than removed. Reviewed November 4, 2026.

Official sourceCensus Table 2: historical household money income (XLSX) P60-289 · September 2026 edition · All households, all races: median income in 2025 dollars.

Official sourceCensus: Poverty in the United States: 2025 (P60-290) September 15, 2026 · Historical official poverty rates, as published in P60-290.

Official sourceGovInfo: Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981 (Public Law 97–34), 95 Stat. 172 Approved August 13, 1981 · Statutes at Large, volume 95, page 172.

Official sourceGovInfo: Tax Reform Act of 1986 (Public Law 99–514), 100 Stat. 2085 Approved October 22, 1986 · Statutes at Large, volume 100, page 2085.

Official sourceOMB Table 7.1: federal debt at year end (XLSX) FY2027 Budget · actuals · Debt held by the public at the end of each fiscal year, millions of dollars.

Read the coverage rules

The claim.The record.The result.

Every claim. Its evidence.

Economy

19 million new jobs

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

Income up, poverty down

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

Exports at a record

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

Taxes and budget

Tax rate cuts

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

The deficit: a regret

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

Security and diplomacy

Nuclear stockpiles reduced

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

Soviets leaving Afghanistan

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

Cuban troops leaving Angola

Administration’s claim

What the record establishes

The publications behind this edition.

The claim.
The record.
The result.